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Michael Ferreyros

Tools

Which AI model should you actually use?

The mistake is treating “AI” and “LLM” as the same word. A large language model is a remarkable reasoner over language. It is not a forecaster, not an optimizer, not a purpose-built perception system, and not the economical way to classify at volume. The pattern that actually wins on cost, speed, and accuracy is quieter: specialist models do the work, and a language model takes the order, routes it, and reports back in plain English.

AI made output infinite. Judgement stayed finite. Tell us what you are starting with and what you need back, and this tool points you to the specialist that fits, in plain terms and in technical detail.

Find the right model

Two questions.

Start with what you have and what you need out of it. You get a plain-English answer and a real example, then the technical pick and the trap that catches most teams.

What are you starting with?

The short version

Twelve jobs where an LLM is the wrong tool.

Every row is something teams currently hand to an LLM. Every row has a better answer that is cheaper and faster, and once you have labelled data, usually more accurate.

The job

Predict churn or default from customer attributes

Reached for

An LLM with the row in the prompt

Actually fits

Gradient-boosted trees

Boosted trees beat deep learning on tabular data. Cheaper, faster, calibrated, and explainable through SHAP.

The job

Forecast next quarter's demand

Reached for

An LLM asked to analyze the data

Actually fits

ETS, Prophet, or LightGBM on lags

LLMs cannot do arithmetic reliably over a long series, and have no notion of seasonality or a confidence interval.

The job

Sort ten million support tickets into twelve buckets

Reached for

One LLM call per ticket

Actually fits

A fine-tuned DeBERTa or fastText

Orders of magnitude cheaper and faster, and usually more accurate once trained on your own labels.

The job

Find the documents similar to this one

Reached for

An LLM reading everything

Actually fits

Embeddings, BM25, and a reranker

Retrieval is a search problem, not a generation problem.

The job

Spot a defect on the production line

Reached for

A multimodal LLM

Actually fits

PatchCore, PaDiM, or a small CNN

Runs on the device in milliseconds. No round trip, no token cost, no network dependency.

The job

Read a scanned invoice

Reached for

A vision LLM on the raw image

Actually fits

OCR and a layout model, LLM for the tail

Purpose-built OCR is more accurate on dense text and far cheaper. Use the LLM to clean up, not to extract.

The job

Choose who gets the discount

Reached for

LLM judgement

Actually fits

Uplift or CATE modeling

You do not want who will buy. You want who will buy only if you discount. Different question, different math.

The job

Schedule 400 technicians across 3,000 jobs

Reached for

An LLM

Actually fits

A constraint solver or MILP

Combinatorial optimization with hard constraints. An LLM returns a plausible, infeasible schedule.

The job

Recommend the next product

Reached for

An LLM

Actually fits

Two-tower retrieval and a ranker

Recommenders learn from your behavioral log. The LLM has never seen it.

The job

Decide which of two headlines converts

Reached for

An LLM's opinion

Actually fits

A contextual bandit or an A/B test

Get the answer from reality, not from a prior.

The job

Transcribe a two-hour call

Reached for

An LLM

Actually fits

Whisper, then an LLM to summarize

Right tool per stage. Chain them rather than collapsing them into one.

The job

Catch an anomaly in server metrics

Reached for

An LLM

Actually fits

Isolation Forest or an autoencoder

Streaming, unlabeled, and real time. An LLM cannot sit in that loop.

The wider field

Language models are one family out of 14.

Six of the 145 approaches in this guide are language models. The other 139 are how you forecast demand, catch fraud, read an invoice, spot a defect, route a ticket, and decide who to call. Filter by family or by the shape of the answer you need, or describe your problem in the search below.

145 approaches across 14 families

Family

Shape of the answer

What kind of answer you get back: a number, a category, a decision, and so on.

Select a family, an answer type, or describe your problem above. Rows are families, and the shape filter is the kind of answer you need. Nothing here needs reading end to end.